Mortgage News Daily

  • Posted To: MBS Commentary

    Remember the middle of 2016 when rates managed to make it all the way back in line with all-time lows despite having almost no justification in terms of economic data and policy outlooks? Those low rates were mostly about Brexit . Something about Brexit is utterly captivating for global financial markets. When it first happened, there was a bit of an anticlimactic response, largely due to the time window involved in working out the nuts and bolts. Now more than 2 years later, we're getting into the more serious phases of the process. Markets aren't nearly as rattled as they were in 2016, but shifts in potential Brexit outcomes have nonetheless been relevant market movers this week. In general, they made a case for bond market gains (i.e. lower rates) this morning, and never really reversed...(read more)

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    Created: 11/15/2018 3:00:33 PM
  • Posted To: MND NewsWire

    Fannie Mae has expanded the menu of post-disaster services it is offering to its borrowers. The new services are in addition to the up to 12 months of forbearance, waived fees, and temporary foreclosure moratorium that Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae (the GSEs) traditionally offer in the wake of hurricanes, wildfires, and other disasters. A press release from Fannie Mae, probably prompted by the unprecedented destruction and loss of life from wildfires in both the northern and southern parts of California, announces personalized case management services through its Disaster Response Network. The program will provide personalized support "to address safety and basic needs, property repairs, employment, and financial recovery-all of which affect a borrower's ability to meet their mortgage obligations...(read more)

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    Created: 11/15/2018 2:27:10 PM
  • Posted To: Mortgage Rate Watch

    Mortgage rates hit their lowest levels of the month today! Sure, that's only 10 business days for the mortgage world, but we'll take every little victory we can get these days. Why is that? Because "these days" have been pretty rough. Exactly one week ago, rates were at their highest levels in nearly 8 years. The assertion about today's rates runs counter to quite a few news stories. Major media outlets are reporting rates as being 'unchanged' this week. That wasn't necessarily incorrect until today. In those cases, reporters are relying on Freddie Mac's weekly survey data. The survey only collects responses from Monday through Wednesday and the results tend to over-represent Monday and Tuesday's rates on any given week. Long story short, as of yesterday, it would have been fair to say rates...(read more)

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    Created: 11/15/2018 2:11:00 PM
  • Posted To: MND NewsWire

    It ain't going to get any easier... The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) tells us these cheery words encapsulate the attitude of respondents to its survey regarding home purchasing. The company's Housing Trends Report for the third quarter of the year found that seven out of 10 of prospective homeowners think that shopping for a house is either going to get harder or stay about the same. The report focuses on the 13 percent of survey respondents defined as prospective homebuyers, that is persons planning on purchasing within the next year. This percentage was 24 percent in the fourth quarter of 2017 and has declined steadily since. Among Millennials surveyed, 19 percent had short term purchase plans as did 13 percent of Gen Xers. Only 7 percent of Baby Boomers and 3 percent of seniors...(read more)

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    Created: 11/15/2018 9:10:35 AM
  • Posted To: MBS Commentary

    Ah Brexit... You thought you'd heard the last of it back in 2016? No such luck. Actually, it is a bit lucky to be hearing about it, at least as far as domestic rates are concerned. Both in 2016 and in the past week, Brexit-related developments helped rates move lower. The current iteration of Brexit drama is not anywhere near that of 2016 and neither is the market reaction. That said, there certainly has been a market reaction. Yesterday afternoon, that reaction was noticeable, but barely. The overnight session brought an even bigger move in British currency (Pounds Sterling), and a more direct response in US bond markets. Much like bonds' relationship with stocks, it will take quite a bit of drama in Sterling to motivate additional gains (at least if we're talking about gains that...(read more)

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    Created: 11/15/2018 6:30:36 AM
  • Posted To: Pipeline Press

    With only week until Thanksgiving there’s a lot going on – every one of these stats impacts lenders. CoreLogic tells us that there are 48,390 homes at risk from the current California wildfires. Believe in climate change or not, or in science or not, one study shows 386,000 homes are said to be at risk in the coming decades due to rising sea levels and coastal flooding. And according to the RV Industry Association, there are now a million Americans living in RVs full time . (Try counting them in the census, figuring out where they vote, where/if they pay taxes, or if 500 KOA Kampgrounds are enough.) Lender Products and Services As of October 2018, 100 mortgage lenders have signed with Loan Vision to utilize its financial management and accounting solution. Martin Kerr, President...(read more)

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    Created: 11/15/2018 6:01:36 AM
  • Posted To: MBS Commentary

    The narrative has grown (remained?) the same for bonds lately. If stocks are losing ground, then it's time to rally . If stocks are stabilizing or recovering, it's time to sell . Today was more of the same in that regard. For the first few hours of the day, yields moved gradually higher despite the inability of core inflation to even meet forecast levels (in its defense, it was really really close!). But when stocks began losing ground in a fairly convincing way, bonds began to improve. Stock losses were compounded by headlines surrounding the Brexit process, where there was apparently some drama today regarding Theresa May's cabinet and its ability to agree on the current draft proposal. After a few conflicting reports, it finally came out that there was sufficient agreement. British...(read more)

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    Created: 11/14/2018 1:58:10 PM
  • Posted To: Mortgage Rate Watch

    Mortgage rates began the day in roughly unchanged territory. Some lenders were microscopically stronger or weaker compared to yesterday, but not enough to impact the average mortgage borrower. For the first few hours of the day, it looked as if rates would stay unchanged or possibly move slightly higher. That all changed when stocks began losing ground. It's always worth remembering (and this will be especially true when the next time it's proven) that there's no magic rule that says stock prices and interest rates must move in the same direction. It is true that there are frequent examples of such correlation, but there are plenty of other examples where the correlation complete breaks down. All that to say that stock losses helped rates today, but will not always necessarily help rates in...(read more)

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    Created: 11/14/2018 1:18:00 PM
  • Posted To: MND NewsWire

    While reams of research have been done on why members of the Millennial generation are less likely to own a home compared to their baby boomer and Gen X elders at the same age, the Urban Institute (UI) notes that knowing the reasons doesn't necessarily shed much light on the potential long-term implications of this behavior. Delaying homeownership , according to UI analysts Jung Hyun Choi and Laurie Goodman, may reduce the wealth the generations' members will acquire over their lifetime. Goodman and Choi used a dataset called the Panel Study of Income Dynamics (PSID) which has tracked individuals since 1968 to identify individuals who reached age 60 between 2003 and 2015 and gather information on their histories, including the age at which they bought their first homes. Half of the older adults...(read more)

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    Created: 11/14/2018 6:39:09 AM
  • Posted To: MBS Commentary

    Bonds are actively trying to decide who they are and what they want to do with their lives. Will they be barometers of economic growth and inflation? Or will they be gauges of Fed bond buying and US government bond selling (supply and demand)? The answer is "yes" on both accounts, but as is often the case--especially when yields have been holding at lofty levels--there's a bit of uncertainty as to how much of the future is already priced-in. Put another way, in a rising rate environment where the reasons for the weakness are well known and well anticipated, bonds increasingly ask "are we there yet?" Today brings a fresh update on one of those "reasons for weakness" in the form of October's CPI data. Inflation has also been holding near post-crisis highs...(read more)

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    Created: 11/14/2018 5:28:36 AM
  • Posted To: MND NewsWire

    Mortgage application activity continued to shrink during the week ended November 9. The Mortgage Bankers Association said its Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage application volume dropped by 3.2 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis when compared to its level on November 2. The index has declined by an aggregate of 9.7 percent since it posted its last increase back on October 19. On an unadjusted basis the index was down 5 percent. The Purchase Index also continued its downhill trend, decreasing 2.3 percent on an adjusted basis to its lowest level since February 2017. The unadjusted Purchase Index fell 5 percent week-over-week and was 3.0 percent lower than the same week in 2017. The Refinance Index decreased 4.3 percent from the previous week to an 18 year low (December 2000)....(read more)

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    Created: 11/14/2018 2:36:00 AM
  • Posted To: MBS Commentary

    CPI (the Consumer Price Index) has been the most relevant economic report on the horizon since the balmy NFP report from 2 weeks back. Reason being: NFP contained a strong wage growth component, and that always generates some fear among bond traders that higher wages will translate to higher inflation. Economists aren't exactly expecting a big uptick in tomorrow's CPI data, but that's precisely why it's been something of a risk. In other words, if CPI were to come in much stronger than expected tomorrow morning, it could dampen spirits in the bond market. Of course CPI could always come in weaker too--which would cast even more doubt on the ability of wages to translate to inflation in the current economic cycle. It's not that it hasn't been happening, just that it hasn't...(read more)

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    Created: 11/13/2018 1:51:11 PM
  • Posted To: Mortgage Rate Watch

    Mortgage rates improved by what could only be described as a token amount today. In other words, we're not talking about any major changes. In fact, mortgage rates themselves will be unchanged from Friday for almost any scenario. As is so often the case, we can only measure the change in terms of "effective rates" (which take upfront costs into consideration). In general, changes in mortgage rates are reserved for big market moves whereas upfront costs and effective rates allow for smaller changes in the overall cost of financing. The bond markets that underlie mortgage rates were closed yesterday for the Veterans Day holiday. In the meantime, the stock market lost ground rather abruptly . At times, bonds (rates) will take cues from stocks--especially when the latter is making a big move lower...(read more)

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    Created: 11/13/2018 1:25:00 PM
  • Posted To: MND NewsWire

    It may be that California, where home prices have exploded over the last few years, has jumped the shark when it comes to affordability. CoreLogic's Andrew LePage writes in the company's Insights blog that September home sales in the state were the lowest in the country since September2007. The sales report comes in the wake of reports from several sources showing an abrupt slowdown in home price growth in many of the state's largest metros. CoreLogic says the state's annual gain of 4.1 percent in the median home price statewide was the lowest in more than two years. Coupled with higher mortgages rates, the lack of affordability appears to, in LePage's words, have knocked some would-be buyers to the sidelines, unable or unwilling to buy. Sales do historically fade in September as school starts...(read more)

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    Created: 11/13/2018 8:17:41 AM
  • Posted To: Pipeline Press

    People vote with their feet. Some population movements are dramatic and garner headlines around the world, others not so much. “About 130,000 more residents left California for other states last year than came here from them…” according to a Sacramento Bee review of the latest census estimates. “They most often went to cheaper, nearby states — and Texas. Since 2001, about 410,000 more people have left California for Texas than arrived from there. That’s roughly equivalent to the population of Oakland.” Perhaps some of those vacated houses will be purchased by Zillow who the Houston Chronicle is telling us is launching a service called Zillow Offers early next year in Houston. Zillow will be making cash offers on homes from qualified sellers and then...(read more)

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    Created: 11/13/2018 6:46:29 AM
  • Posted To: MBS Commentary

    As of last Thursday, it didn't look like traders were much interested in hearing arguments in favor of bonds. Then, an unexpectedly healthy little rally on Friday kept hope alive going into the 3-day weekend. Now this morning, the week begins with yields a few bps lower still. 10yr yields begin the week below the middle Bollinger Band (a 21-day moving average that serves as a sort of dividing line between a majority of buying and selling sprees. As can be seen in the most recent dip below (middle yellow line), sometimes the buying sprees are short-lived when we're in the midst of a longer-term uptrend in rates. Momentum technicals (the stochastic oscillators at the bottom of the chart) are also in pretty good shape , with a potential bounce shaping up in shorter-term momentum. The message...(read more)

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    Created: 11/13/2018 6:23:52 AM
  • Posted To: MBS Commentary

    Interesting day today... It began with a decent overnight rally, mostly led by European bond markets. The first big speed-bump came at 8:30am with the Producer Price Index coming in much hotter than expected. Normally, PPI isn't much of a market mover except in the case of BIG beats/misses. This one fit the bill. Bonds sold-off initially . That much was to be expected, but there would they end the day? The possibilities were endless considering yields were already fairly close to long-term highs. Instead, the 9:30am NYSE open brought a healthy dose of bond buying and a moderate amount of stock selling. European trading continued to play a role until noon when bonds went completely silent ahead of the 3-day Veterans Day Weekend, but not before 10yr yields fell more than 5bps and Fannie 4...(read more)

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    Created: 11/9/2018 3:26:12 PM
  • Posted To: Mortgage Rate Watch

    Mortgage rates were mixed today, depending on the lender. Most lenders began the day in slightly worse shape compared to yesterday. Bond markets improved enough by mid-day that many lenders were able to offer positive reprices (new, better rate sheets). Lenders typically don't change mortgage rates more than once a day unless underlying markets have moved enough. Lenders who repriced generally ended up slightly better off compared to yesterday. The remainder were in worse shape. On average, rates were unchanged. Bond markets will be closed on Monday in observance of Veterans Day. That means mortgage companies won't be available to accept rate locks, and many will be fully closed. When markets fire back up next week, they'll soon be able to digest an important report on inflation in the form...(read more)

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    Created: 11/9/2018 2:45:00 PM
  • Posted To: MND NewsWire

    The ongoing improvement in mortgage performance hit a slight snag in the third quarter of 2018, one that appears to be disaster related. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) said the National Delinquency Survey found the national delinquency rate grew by 11 basis points (bps) from the second quarter to 4.47 percent. This was, however an improvement of 41 bps from the same quarter in 2017. Foreclosure starts continued to decline, dropping 1 bp quarter-over-quarter to 0.23 percent, its lowest level since, not just the recession, but 1985. All loan types saw increased delinquencies for the quarter but were down year-over-year. For the quarter, the rate for conventional loans was also up 11 bps to 3.56 percent while the FHA rate rose 26 bps and the VA rate 19 bps to 8.96 percent and 4.16 percent...(read more)

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    Created: 11/9/2018 7:27:07 AM
  • Posted To: MBS Commentary

    Between the mid-term elections earlier this week and the simple tradeflow move following the Fed yesterday, bond markets have had their chance to make any necessary adjustments before the next big data point coming up next week. CPI (the consumer price index) isn't the be all, end all market mover, but it's important right now because it has a chance to confirm or reject the notion that the strongest wage growth in a decade will actually translate to an uptick in prices. If we're to believe this morning's Producer Price data, consumers should certainly be prepared to pay more. If CPI continues in a 2.2-2.3% year over year range (at the core level), that would actually be a bond-friendly development. It would mean producers aren't able to pass on their higher input costs...(read more)

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    Created: 11/9/2018 6:20:49 AM
  • Posted To: Pipeline Press

    Whether bond loans (we all know how management loves those), non-QM, reverse mortgages, or high loan to values, originators everywhere are working hard for their borrowers and being creative in a compliant manner. For example, from Minnesota Eric Otterness writes, “Recently my team and I closed on a loan for a first-time buyer in Minneapolis where we had eight down payment assistance programs layered on top. I’m pretty sure that $86,000 on a $190,000 house is a new world record! It was fun and I doubt it has ever been matched or will ever be beaten. If anyone knows of a transaction where there were more, let them come forward and we will stop claiming the new world record!” Lender Products and Services Mr. Cooper Correspondent is excited regarding the pending acquisition of...(read more)

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    Created: 11/9/2018 5:58:39 AM
  • Posted To: MBS Commentary

    It's hard not to give the Fed a wide berth as the biggest potential market mover on any given Fed day. Today was a Fed day! We talked about the outside possibility of the Fed statement having an impact on markets. Markets indeed made SOME movement, but looked at under anything less powerful than a microscope, today's moves were fairly small. Still, it did seem that bonds were leveling off before the Fed only to move higher in yield afterward. So, did the Fed matter after all? Some traders took the absence of change in the statement to mean the Fed isn't worried about recent stock market weakness or trade-related uncertainty. The supposed implication is that the Fed was unfriendly to rates today because they didn't say anything new and rate-friendly, but that's a big stretch...(read more)

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    Created: 11/8/2018 2:02:16 PM
  • Posted To: Mortgage Rate Watch

    Mortgage rates moved back up today, leaving them right in line with the highest levels of the week. These also happen to be the highest levels since early 2011, but let's not get bogged down in unfortunate details! Rates will definitely move lower at some point in the future. That's the way economic cycles work--and they always work eventually. The big questions are twofold: how long will it take for fortunes to change and how high will rates go in the meantime? In terms of timing, we could be looking at anywhere from a few months to more than year before seeing a shift that's big enough to get excited about. That said, there will still be pockets of positivity at times, even in a rising rate environment. Whatever the case may be, the higher rates go, the closer we're getting to the end of...(read more)

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    Created: 11/8/2018 1:36:00 PM
  • Posted To: MND NewsWire

    Housing affordability crept down again in the third quarter of 2018 reaching, according to the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB), a ten-year low. The NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Opportunity Index (HOI) indicates that 56.4 percent of new and existing homes that were sold nationwide during the quarter were affordable to families earning the U.S. median income of $71,000 . In the second quarter 57.1 percent of homes were affordable by this measure. Affordability, according to the 2 nd quarter reading, is the lowest since mid-2008. The HOI reacted to the combination of a 5 basis point increase in the mortgage interest rate to 4.72 percent over the course of the reporting period, coupled ongoing appreciation in home values. The median price of a home sold during the quarter was $268,000...(read more)

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    Created: 11/8/2018 11:43:09 AM
  • Posted To: MBS Commentary

    Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in AugustSeptember indicates that the labor market has continued to strengthen and that economic activity has been rising at a strong rate. Job gains have been strong, on average, in recent months, and the unemployment rate has stayed lowdeclined. Household spending andhas continued to grow strongly, while growth of business fixed investment havehas grownmoderated stronglyfrom its rapid pace earlier in the year. On a 12-month basis, both overall inflation and inflation for items other than food and energy remain near 2 percent. Indicators of longer-term inflation expectations are little changed, on balance. Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. The Committee...(read more)

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    Created: 11/8/2018 11:13:55 AM